The Political Rift: Mnangagwa’s Third Term Ambitions Face Public Resistance

President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s aspirations for a third term have sparked heated debates, despite his repeated denials. With significant internal and external opposition, his political future is far from certain.

According to the latest Afrobarometer survey, 80% of Zimbabweans favor retaining the current constitutional limit of two presidential terms. This resounding rejection of any amendments underscores the increasing discontent among the populace, adding pressure to the ongoing internal Zanu-PF power struggle.

The survey, conducted by the Mass Public Opinion Institute (MPOI), paints a striking picture. Public opinion reflects strong opposition to Mnangagwa’s extended rule, cutting across urban and rural demographics. Urban residents, in particular, express overwhelming disapproval, with 85% backing the current two-term limit. However, rural respondents, while slightly more conservative, still show significant support at 74%.

Educational background further intensifies this sentiment. Among Zimbabweans with tertiary education, a staggering 87% favor the existing term limits, compared to 69% with only primary education. Clearly, as education levels rise, so too does the awareness of constitutional principles, indicating a deep-rooted resistance to any form of governance manipulation.

Support for Mnangagwa’s continued leadership faces even more friction within Zanu-PF. Despite public claims to step down after his second term ends in 2028, some powerful figures within the ruling party are pushing for constitutional amendments to extend his rule to 2030. This push, driven by factions loyal to Mnangagwa, has fueled widespread political anxiety and raised concerns over democratic erosion.

Interestingly, gender divides in public opinion are relatively narrow. The survey shows men slightly more in favor of term limits at 81%, while women trail not far behind at 76%. Yet, the broader picture remains stark: only 20% of Zimbabweans are open to scrapping the constitutional two-term limit altogether. This figure speaks volumes about the nation’s commitment to preventing an indefinite presidency, a sign of its growing political maturity.

Mnangagwa’s intentions, however, have drawn skepticism from multiple fronts, particularly from Zimbabwe’s powerful military establishment. The military, whose role in the 2017 coup that ousted Robert Mugabe remains a defining moment in Zimbabwean politics, appears firmly against any moves that would extend Mnangagwa’s presidency beyond the constitutional timeframe. The army’s role cannot be understated; its opposition poses a formidable challenge to Mnangagwa’s ambitions.

A source within the military, speaking anonymously, emphasized the army’s strict adherence to the constitution. The insider revealed that the military leadership views Mnangagwa’s second term as constitutionally sufficient and sees any efforts to prolong his rule as a breach of the democratic order. This internal resistance from such a powerful institution significantly alters the dynamics of the political landscape, complicating Mnangagwa’s path to a potential third term.

Despite Mnangagwa’s assurances of stepping down in 2028, his supporters within Zanu-PF seem determined to keep him in power, citing his pivotal role within both the party and national politics. These internal maneuvers, although widely criticized, continue unabated. Zanu-PF’s provincial structures remain a hotbed of pro-Mnangagwa sentiment, further fueling the discord between the party and the public.

Yet, the president’s internal detractors are not the only force he must contend with. The Citizens for Coalition Change (CCC), a key opposition party, has vowed to resist any constitutional amendments that would extend Mnangagwa’s rule. The CCC, alongside other civil society groups, plans to launch an anti-amendment campaign, aiming to thwart any moves toward a third term. Such organized resistance highlights the broad-based discontent with any potential extension of presidential power.

CCC spokesperson Promise Mkwananzi firmly stated that the party views any amendment as undemocratic, pledging to fight it in court and on the streets. He underscored that any constitutional change would likely require a referendum, a process that could further embarrass those pushing for Mnangagwa’s extended rule. The party’s strong opposition only adds another layer of complexity to the unfolding political drama.

The looming Zanu-PF annual conference in Bulawayo this month is expected to bring further clarity to the situation. With key resolutions set to be discussed, the party’s stance on Mnangagwa’s future leadership may become clearer. However, it is evident that the internal push for a third term is far from universally accepted, even within the ruling party itself.

The Afrobarometer survey and the military’s opposition to a third term suggest that any attempts to extend Mnangagwa’s presidency could lead to further political instability. The stakes are high, and the outcome of these internal and external power struggles will likely shape Zimbabwe’s political trajectory for years to come.

As the political tensions escalate, the growing calls for democratic integrity and constitutional adherence reflect the increasing demand for transparent governance. Mnangagwa’s third-term bid now stands at the crossroads of public sentiment, military intervention, and political ambition, with no clear resolution in sight.

The Zim Bulletin