India Overtakes China as World’s Most Populous Nation, Sparking Fertility Concerns

India has now surpassed China as the most populous country in the world, with nearly 1.45 billion residents, according to the latest United Nations population estimates.

This demographic shift has sparked renewed debate about fertility rates, particularly in southern states like Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, where birth rates have dipped below replacement levels.

Andhra Pradesh has recently abolished its two-child policy for local elections, while Tamil Nadu is advocating for larger families as policymakers grow increasingly concerned about declining fertility rates.

India’s fertility rate has seen a dramatic decrease over the years, dropping from 5.7 births per woman in 1950 to just two today, reflecting a sweeping demographic transformation.

Seventeen of India’s 29 states are now below the replacement fertility rate of 2.1, a critical threshold needed to sustain population growth, according to available data.

Southern states hit this demographic benchmark earlier than others, raising questions about potential disparities in federal funding and political representation across regions.

Experts predict rapid aging across India’s population, with a dramatic rise in the number of elderly citizens expected within the next three decades, further straining social systems.

The situation is exacerbated by economic inequality, as more than 40% of India’s older population currently falls into the lowest income brackets, creating challenges for caregivers and policymakers alike.

Concerns over shrinking family sizes have led to calls for action. Leaders, such as those from Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, urge families to have at least three children to stabilize population growth.

While calls for higher fertility rates grow louder, experts caution that increasing births alone will not address the broader socioeconomic challenges India faces as it grapples with demographic changes.

India’s aging crisis highlights the urgency for policies that extend working ages, improve healthcare for older adults, and create a more sustainable economic support structure.

The window of opportunity remains open for now, with a young and sizable working-age population available to drive economic growth if strategic investments in employment and education are made.

By 2047, India’s demographic advantage could transform into a liability if aging populations overwhelm available resources without adequate planning, infrastructure, and support systems in place.

The government is under pressure to devise long-term strategies that balance fertility incentives with provisions for a rapidly aging society and looming economic concerns.

India’s population milestone underscores the complexity of managing demographic shifts in a way that promotes growth, equity, and societal well-being for future generations.